Saturday, June 10, 2017

UK General Election June 2017 - Initial Personal Reaction

Theresa May  having almost amazingly been defeated in the General Election may be brave to continue with her PM's role at least for the time being.

My own view is that there will be much Tory infighting behind closed doors and then a new leader and PM will be elected within a year.

Jeremy Corbyn defeated all expectations for the Labour Party which nonetheless on its  third consecutive attempt, still failed to win a UK general election.  He garnered the young people's support in droves and importantly encouraged them to go out to the polls and actually vote, which in the past they have been less inclined to do than their elders.

I am very cynical of his methodology though. Promising young people to waive fees for Higher education c.£12bn annually and the trade unions to nationalise everything from railways to water at c. £50bn? upon the basis that all this would be funded by the very rich was surreal. 

There are insufficient really wealthy people in the country  at present to fund these aspects from extra personal  taxation and many of  those that are here, could well have considered emigrating. 

Increasing corporation tax would bring in more income for the government to spend in that way but for how long? Already corporations such as Google and Amazon select low corporation tax countries like Luxembourg or Ireland in which to centre their European HQs. 

Nonetheless Jeremy Corbyn's promises appealed and Labour garnered votes as a consequence.

Theresa May's campaigning was lack lustre and wooden. The Tories need a new leader with more sparkle - possibly  even Boris Johnson. 

A difficulty for any party which accepts the need to restrict government borrowing, is that its policies will never appear as attractive as those of the party which offers a spend, spend, spend policy- as the Greeks already know.

As for exiting the EU: Consensus about the terms of within the UK  parliament now seems very difficult if not impossible to achieve. 

My prediction is either another referendum on the issue of leaving or remaining in the EU and/or an hard Brexit .Even another referendum might not resolve the issue as the the people  could vote the same way as before although the Irish changed their minds in their two  Maastricht treaty referenda.

A wake up call to the Tories; some back slapping and  congratulations to the Labour party are due meanwhile.

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